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(And 3 Shocking Answers!)

September 22, 2008

Bob Prechter, President of Elliott Wave International (EWI), is no stranger to challenging the status quo. His New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash, was published in 2002 before anyone was even talking about the current financial crisis.

In his recent 10-page market letter, Prechter shifts his focus to the government’s role in the latest financial turmoil.

Elliott Wave International is offering the full 10-page report free if you’d like to read all 28 answers. Visit EWI to download the full report, free.

Here are 3 questions excerpted from the free report:

1. Didn’t Congress create the Federal Housing Authority, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and the Federal Home Loan Banks for the purpose of helping the public buy homes?

You’re kidding, right? What happened is that clever businessmen schemed with members of Congress to create privileged lending institutions so they could get rich off the public’s labor. In return, members of Congress got big campaign contributions from the privileged corporations and, as a bonus, even more votes. The public’s welfare had nothing to do with it.

Who celebrated when Congress passed the latest housing bill? Answer: “The California Mortgage Bankers Association applauded Congress for permanently increasing the size of loans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy….” (USA, 7/28) The legislation exists to “protect the nation’s two largest mortgage companies….” (NYT, 7/24) Who took out full-page ads to encourage Congress to “enact housing stimulus legislation now”? Answer: the National Association of Home Builders. Who celebrated when the administration “unveiled a new set of best [sic] practices designed to encourage banks to issue a debt instrument known as a covered bond”? Answer: “[Treasury Secretary] Paulson was joined at the news conference by officials from the Federal Reserve [and] the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation…. Officials from banking giants Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. issued a joint statement saying, ‘We look forward to being leading issuers’” (AP, 7/29) of covered bonds. And voters still believe that Congress is there to help the needy.

2. Who cares if a bank goes under? Won’t the FDIC protect depositors?

The FDIC is not funded well enough to bail out even a handful of the biggest banks in America. It has enough money to pay depositors of about three big banks. After that, it’s broke. But here is the real irony: The FDIC, as history will ultimately demonstrate, causes banks to fail. The FDIC creates destruction three ways. First, its very existence encourages banks to take lending risks that they would never otherwise contemplate, while it simultaneously removes depositors’ incentives to keep their bankers prudent. This double influence produces an unsound banking system. We have reached that point today. Second, the FDIC imposes costly rules on banks. In July, it “implemented a new rule…requiring the 159 [largest] banks to keep records that will give quick access to customer information.” As the American Bankers Association puts it, the new rule “will impose a lot of burden on a lot of banks for no reason.” (AJC, 7/19) Third, the FDIC gets its money in the form of “premiums” from—guess whom?—healthy banks! So as weak banks go under, the FDIC can wring more money from still-solvent banks. If it begins calling in money during a systemic credit implosion, marginal banks will go under, requiring more money for the FDIC, which will have to take more money from banks, breaking more marginal banks, etc. The FDIC could continue this behavior until all banks are bust, but it will more likely give up and renege. Remember, every government program ultimately brings about the opposite of the stated goal, and the FDIC is no exception.

3. Who are the “homeowners”?

Everywhere you turn, news articles are discussing how Congress, the President and the Fed are taking action to “help homeowners.” People’s understanding of this statement is 100 percent wrong. The homeowners in question are not the residents of the houses. The homeowners are banks. Unlike some states, Georgia made its law very specific on this point. Our local paper recently explained that, by recognizing the reality of ownership, “Georgia employs primarily a nonjudicial foreclosure” and therefore “has one of the fastest procedures in the country.” Specifically, “The property owner gives the mortgage holder a ‘security deed’ or a ‘deed to secure debt’. Technically, until the debt is paid, in full, the mortgage holder owns the property and allows the borrower to possess it.” (GT, 8/6) In states where the mortgage holder is deemed the property owner, the title is merely a legal technicality. The day he stops making mortgage payments, he no longer owns the property; the bank does. After foreclosure, many of those whom politicians and the media call homeowners will simply go from paying interest to a bank to paying rent to a landlord. For those with little or no equity, it’s not that big a deal. The real devastation is happening in banks’ portfolios, and banks, not home-dwellers, are the ones whom the government is trying to rescue, at others’ expense.

One might be tempted to charge therefore that Congress makes its laws for the purpose of helping banks. This idea, too, is incorrect. Helping banks is merely a side effect. The reason that Congress creates privileges for bankers is to benefit politicians. They make laws in response to campaign contributions from lending institutions, real-estate organizations and builders’ associations. They also garner votes from mortgage holders and, miraculously, from voters who think that their “representatives” are being “compassionate.”

The previous 3 questions and answers from Bob Prechter were excerpted from his recent 10-page market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist.

Elliott Wave International is offering the full 10-page report free if you’d like to read all 28 answers. Visit EWI to download the full report, free.

Economic data released yesterday:
Existing Home Sales: U.S. August Existing Home Sales were lower by 2.2% to 4.91 Million rate; U.S. August Existing Home Sales Consensus 4.95 Million rate; U.S. Inventory Of Unsold August Homes at 10.4 Months Supply; U.S. August Median Existing Home Price fell 9.5% on the year to $203,100.

Hot Stock picks on the move today for day trading:
Massey Energy Company (NYSE: MEE) had a trading range on the session of five points. Massey provided a fairly appealing long position shortly after the opening bell. Into mid-day, Massey reversed and moved lower, playing into the hands of short-sellers hungry for a short position to trade. At the closing bell, Massey was in the red zone by just over a quarter of a point.

At the NYSE closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. stock indices ended the session on the world market as well as the emerging markets including the stock market closing bell price:
DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) loss of 29.00 points on the day to end the trading session at 10,825.17
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) loss of 16.45 points to end the trading session at 7,768.82
NASDAQ gain of 2.35 points to end the trading session at 2,155.68
S&P 500 loss of 2.35 points to end the trading session at 1,185.87
FTSE All-World excluding U.S. loss of 0.83 points to end the trading session at 202.83
FTSE RAFI 1000 loss of 25.86 points to end the trading session at 4,714.07
BEL 20 (BEL20) loss of 26.76 points to end the trading session at 2,866.17
CAC 40 (CAC40) loss of 25.28 points to end the trading session at 4,114.54
FTSE100 (UKX100) loss of 40.55 points to end the trading session at 5,095.57
NIKKEI 225 (NIK/O) gain of 24.44 points to end the trading session at 12,115.03

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock market indicators for the day:
Advanced stock prices 1,289; declined stock prices 1,904; unchanged stock prices 71; stock prices hitting new highs 9 and stock prices hitting new lows 130.
NYSE quotes for volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the New York Stock Exchange stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: Goldman Sachs Group Incorporated (NYSE: GS) stock price gained 7.95 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $133.70, low on the trading session $126.02 with a closing stock price at $133.00; Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) stock price gained 0.10 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $35.75, low on the trading session $34.08 with a closing stock price at $34.27; Worthington Industries Incorporated (NYSE: WOR) stock price gained 0.53 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $17.74, low on the trading session $16.72 with a closing stock price at $17.11; Textron Incorporated (NYSE: TXT) stock price shed 1.41 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $34.11, low on the trading session $31.85 with a closing stock price at $32.55; Cleveland-Cliffs Incorporated (NYSE: CLF) stock price shed 2.44 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $73.85, low on the trading session $68.00 with a closing stock price at $69.39; Potash Corporation Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) stock price gained 1.52 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $170.40, low on the trading session $160.86 with a closing stock price at $162.59; Transocean Incorporated (NYSE: RIG) stock price gained 2.62 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $126.06, low on the trading session $122.37 with a closing stock price at $124.49; State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT) stock price shed 0.93 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $55.89, low on the trading session $49.82 with a closing stock price at $53.10; General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) stock price shed 2.18 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $79.80, low on the trading session $76.75 with a closing stock price at $77.73; Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation (NYSE: PPC) stock price shed 3.90 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $10.60, low on the trading session $6.06 with a closing stock price at $6.36; SPX Corporation (NYSE: SPW) stock price shed 4.70 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $92.55, low on the trading session $85.69 with a closing stock price at $86.79.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) stock market indicators today:
Advanced stock prices 984; declined stock prices 1,883; unchanged stock prices 147; stock prices hitting new highs 10; stock prices hitting new lows 123.
NASDAQ quotes, volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the NASDAQ stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: Sequenom Incorporated (NasdaqGS: SQNM) stock price gained 7.00 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $28.29, low on the trading session $23.95 with a closing stock price at $27.56; Energy Conversion Devices Incorporated (NasdaqGS: ENER) stock price gained 7.28 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $66.30, low on the trading session $62.13 with a closing stock price at $63.74; Sonic Corporation (NasdaqGS: SONC) stock price shed 0.50 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $16.00, low on the trading session $14.74 with a closing stock price at $15.43; James River Coal Company (NasdaqGS: JRCC) stock price shed 4.67 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $31.34, low on the trading session $27.12 with a closing stock price at $28.59; SunPower Corporation (NasdaqGS: SPWR) stock price gained 5.49 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $98.60, low on the trading session $92.49 with a closing stock price at $93.00; First Solar Incorporated (NasdaqGS: FSLR) stock price gained 10.91 points on the trading session, high on the trading session $229.56, low on the trading session $218.02 with a closing stock price at $221.80.

Market trends on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and stock market indicators for today:
Advanced stock prices 420; declined stock prices 732; unchanged stock prices 72; stock prices hitting new highs 3; stock prices hitting new lows 68.

Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market activity for the day, at time of this posting for December 2008 Contracts:
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) end of day price 1,192.00 change -1.00
E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ) end of day price 1,671.25, change -0.75
E-mini S&P SmallCap 600 (SMP) end of day price 370.50, change 0.0
$5 DJIA (YM) end of day price 10,855 change -5

World Currencies for the Forex Market, for Forex Trading by active Forex Traders, at time of this posting:
Euro 0.6843 to U.S. Dollars 1.4614
Japanese Yen 106.190 to U.S. Dollars 0.0094
British Pound 0.5416 to U.S. Dollars 1.8464
Canadian Dollar 1.0385 to U.S. Dollars 0.9629
Swiss Franc 1.0914 to U.S. Dollars 0.9163

Commodity Markets:
Energy Sector: Light Crude (NYMEX: NYM) shed $0.88 on the day for a closing price of $105.73 a barrel ($US per barrel)
Heating Oil (NYMEX: NYM) gained $0.01 on the day for a closing price of $3.03 a gallon ($US per gallon)
Natural Gas (NYMEX: NYM) shed $0.24 on the day for a closing price of $7.91 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.)
Unleaded Gas (NYMEX: NYM) shed $0.00 on the day for a closing price of $2.59 a gallon ($US per gallon)

Metals Markets:
Gold Market Price (COMEX: CMX) gained $3.80 on the day for a closing price of $895.00 ($US per Troy ounce)
Silver (COMEX: CMX) gained $0.27 on the day for a closing price of $13.44 ($US per Troy ounce)
Platinum (NYMEX: NYM) gained $13.00 on the day for a closing price of $1,225.00 ($US per Troy ounce)
Copper (COMEX: CMX) shed $0.05 on the day for a closing price of $3.11 ($US per pound)

Livestock and Meat Markets (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (Chicago Mercantile Exchange: CME) gained 0.50 on the day for a closing price of 68.95
Pork Bellies (Chicago Mercantile Exchange: CME) gained 3.00 on the day for a closing price of 98.00
Live Cattle (Chicago Mercantile Exchange: CME) gained 0.75 on the day for a closing price of 104.20
Feeder Cattle (Chicago Mercantile Exchange: CME) gained 1.50 on the day for a closing price of 107.45

Other Commodities (cents per bushel):
Corn (Chicago Board of Trade: CBT) gained 2.75 on the day for a closing price of 563.00
Soybeans (Chicago Board of Trade: CBT) had no change on the day for a closing price of 1,190.50

Bond Market:
2 year bond gained 7/32 on the day for a closing price of 100 25/32 with a Yield of 1.94, Yield Change -0.13
5 year bond gained 18/32 on the day for a closing price of 101 with a Yield of 2.90, Yield Change -0.12
10 year bond had no change on the day for a closing price of 101 17/32 with a Yield of 3.80, Yield Change 0.00
30 year bond shed 12/32 on the day for a closing price of 101 15/32 with a Yield of 4.41, Yield Change +0.03

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Además de los usuales problemas de acentos en su página.