Ether Price Analysis: Bullish Momentum Seems to Be Waning

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Ether Price Analysis

Early in the summer, the entire crypto market took a sustained, downward move that left ETH-USD dropping in value by approximately 60 percent. At the start of the bear market, the price of ether was $360 and ultimately found lows bottoming out in the $130s. As of today, ETH-USD market price is in the mid $330s, and the volume shows no signs of new investment interest:

Figure_1 (2).JPGFigure 1: ETH-USD, 12-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Bear Market Fibonacci Retracement Values

Although the high of the market was in the upper $400s, my personal opinion is that it’s best to view the market beginning within the $360 values. This price range represents the market acceptance of the impending bear market. Currently, ether is pushing new local highs on decreasing volume. Leading into this push, ETH-USD spent a couple weeks consolidating around the $300 range before ultimately breaking out to $340.

Let’s first take a look at the macro trend market indicators and then zoom in to the smaller timescales:

Figure_2 (2).JPGFigure 2: ETH-USD, 6-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Current Bull Run

Three major indications of bullish exhaustion are visible in the $300 values:

  1. Price growth on decreasing volume

  2. MACD divergence

  3. RSI divergence

The market is currently struggling to make new highs, and the classic signs of bullish momentum loss are seen quite clearly on the RSI and MACD.

Zooming in to the 1-hour candle trend, we see further signs of bullish exhaustion:

Figure_3 (2).JPGFigure 3: ETH-USD, 1-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Micro Trend

The MACD and RSI momentum divergence is visible within a bearish pattern known as an “Ascending Wedge.” Currently, the market is attempting to break to the bottom of the wedge and shows moderate signs of sell volume increasing upon the breakout point. A sustained breakdown of this pattern would give an approximate price target of the low $300 values.

To understand whether the downward move is a sustained move or merely a support test, we will have to observe the volume trend in correlation with price movement. Sustained volume growth within a downward move indicates less confidence in higher values, and higher interest in the lower values.

A sustained move on the micro trend could lead to a test of a potential macro trend on the high timescales. Similar to the 1-hour candle trend, the 4-hour candle trend also shows an Ascending Wedge:

Figure_4 (1).JPGFigure 4: ETH-USD, 4-Hour Candles, Bitfinex, Macro Ascending Wedge

A breakdown of this rising wedge could have a significant price target in the $250–260 range. Again, when confirming the macro trend breakdown, it is a good idea to watch the volume to confirm a trend and reduce the risk of a market fakeout.

Whether the market is interested in a sustained move to lower values remains to be seen. However, a couple things are very clear: the overall market volume is decreasing with every push to higher values, and the RSI and MACD on both macro and micro scales are showing bullish momentum loss.

Summary:

  1. Bullish momentum loss is visible across both the micro and macro trends.

  2. Currently, the ETH-USD 1-hour candle trend is testing the lower boundary of a rising wedge and has yet to have a confirmed breakdown of the pattern.

  3. A breakdown in price in the current market could lead to a sustained bearish market on the macro scale.

Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin, bitcoin cash and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The post Ether Price Analysis: Bullish Momentum Seems to Be Waning appeared first on Bitcoin Magazine.

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Is Bitcoin Really Anonymous? IRS Moves To Track Cryptocurrencies With New Chain Analysis Tools

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Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Last month Alt-Market.com founder Brandon Smith warned that Bitcoin may not be all that it’s cracked up to be in terms of its purported anonymity:

For years, one of the major original selling points of bitcoin was that it was “anonymous.” It always surprised me that so many people in the liberty movement bought into this scam.

 

Surely after the revelations exposed by Edward Snowden and organizations like Wikileaks, it is utterly foolish to believe that anything in the digital world is truly “anonymous.”

 

The feds have been proving there is no anonymity, even in bitcoin, for some time, as multiple arrests using bitcoin tracking have indeed occurred when the FBI decided it was in their interest. Meaning, when the feds want to track bitcoin transactions, they can, and it does not matter how well the people involved covered their actions.

Because every transaction exists on a public blockchain ledger, an enterprising organization – say like the NSA or IRS – could conceivably implement blockchain analysis tools to track down Bitcoin fund transfers around the globe. These days most bitcoin transactions are originated on “trusted” exchanges that exist in Western nations, where governments have always found new and innovative ways to ensure citizens have no privacy whatsoever, especially when it comes to personal finances. This means that there is more than likely a record of your original Bitcoin transaction, perhaps involving a credit card or bank transfer, and if regulators ask an exchange to turn over the information you can bet they’ll do so in order to avoid unwanted government scrutiny. Moreover, most exchanges now require a driver’s license, passport and even a phone number in order to approve your account for trading.

The point is, for government investigators with a bone to pick, your crypto currency activities online may not be as anonymous and private as you may think.

In fact, so exposed is the blockchain to Big Brother monitoring and interference, that the Internal Revenue Service has now implemented blockchain analysis tools to help them track down individuals who are profiting off the crypto currency and not declaring these profits on their tax returns.

Via Bitcoin.com:

According to a contract recently obtained by the Daily Beast, the IRS can now track bitcoin and other cryptocurrency addresses. They can do this to route out potential tax evaders. They purchased software from the blockchain analysis group Chainalysis.

The document details that “criminals” have used digital currencies to launder money, deal drugs, and commit other unlawful behavior. However, criminals have also been using digital currencies to ignore tax liabilities and evade responsibility. The Daily Beast article elaborated:

The document highlights how law enforcement isn’t only concerned with criminals accumulating bitcoin from selling drugs or hacking targets, but also those who use the currency to hide wealth or avoid paying taxes.

Reason for IRS Crackdown; Tracking Bitcoiners

 

The reason the IRS is cracking down on digital currencies appears to be because only 802 people declared bitcoin profits or losses in 2015. The Daily Beast article suggests that many people may have not expected the IRS to collect on digital currencies. Others may have just thought they could easily sidestep this alleged obligation.

As a result of this failure to pay taxes, the IRS consulted with Chainalysis.

 

They are now providing the IRS with tools to track bitcoin addresses through the blockchain and centralized exchanges. A Fortune article captured a screen shot of the letter:

 

 

The tool that Chainaylsis gave the IRS is called a refactor tool. It visualizes, tracks, and analysis transactions on the blockchain. Agencies from law enforcement, IRS, and banks will be able to use the tool, according to sources.

 

To date, records show the IRS has paid Chainaylsis $88,700 since 2015 for its services.

 

Full article at bitcoin.com

Prepare for a full-out onslaught against the government’s newest enemy: crypto terrorists.

That means YOU, if you happen to own any Bitcoin.

Because as we highlighted in 2014, under new directives passed by the Obama Administration, concrete facts are not necessary for you to be put on any number of government watch lists:

The recently declassified Watchlisting Guidance rule book issued in 2013 and developed by members of 19 law enforcement agencies that include the FBI, NSA, CIA, and NSA, outlines the rules for placing individuals, including American citizens, on the various watch lists currently in use. As noted by The Intercept, the rules, much like America’s secretive anti-terrorism laws, are vague and often contradict each other.

It reveals a confounding and convoluted system filled with exceptions to its own rules, and it relies on the elastic concept of “reasonable suspicion” as a standard for determining whether someone is a possible threat.

 

Because the government tracks “suspected terrorists” as well as “known terrorists,” individuals can be watchlisted if they are suspected of being a suspected terrorist, or if they are suspected of associating with people who are suspected of terrorism activity.

 

“Instead of a watchlist limited to actual, known terrorists, the government has built a vast system based on the unproven and flawed premise that it can predict if a person will commit a terrorist act in the future,” says Hina Shamsi, the head of the ACLU’s National Security Project. “On that dangerous theory, the government is secretly blacklisting people as suspected terrorists and giving them the impossible task of proving themselves innocent of a threat they haven’t carried out.”

The guidelines for who is or is not a terrorist are now so vague that any American could potentially be added to a list for something as menial as knowing someone who has committed an activity deemed to be of terrorist nature. And as has been highlighted previously, those activities could range from making a hand gesture that looks like a gun or manufacturing your own gold and silver coins.

And now, of course, trading or owning Bitcoin.

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How To Download All of Wikipedia Onto a USB Flash Drive

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Image: Pexels

Wikipedia might not always be the most accurate source of information out there, but it is one of those things that I’m constantly thankful is around. You can actually ensure that the site is always there for you, even when you don’t have a web connection, by downloading it in its entirety.

We wrote about a way to do this with an open-source app called XOWA last year, but the process is actually even easier.

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Wikipedia creates a download of its database on a regular basis that is literally just sitting there for you to download it. The site file is available to anyone who wants it, and it can be used for “mirroring, personal use, informal backups, offline use, or database queries.”

Right now the whole file is 14GB of data compressed, or 58GB uncompressed, well within the confines of USB stick capacities. All you have to do is go to this site and download it, saving it to the USB Drive of your choice (I recommend a nice Yoda one).

It’s one of those things you’re not sure you’re going to need until you do, but when the internet as we know it ends (or you’re just traveling without WiFi), and you really need to know how many episodes of The Golden Girls there were (180), you’ll be happy you have tucked away.

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China Is Weaponizing Water

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Authored by Eugene Chow via The National Interest,

Hidden in plain sight is an intimidating Chinese weapon that allows it to hold a quarter of the world’s population hostage without firing a single shot. While much attention has been given to the nation’s fearsome new military hardware, a formidable component in its arsenal has largely escaped notice: dams.

With more than 87,000 dams and control of the Tibetan plateau, the source of ten major rivers which 2 billion people depend on, China possesses a weapon of mass destruction. With the flip of a switch, the Middle Kingdom can release hundreds of millions of gallons of water from its mega dams, causing catastrophic floods that would reshape entire ecosystems in countries downstream.

China knows first-hand the destructive power of water. In an attempt to halt advancing Japanese troops during World War II, Chang Kai-Shek, commander of the Chinese Nationalist Army, destroyed a dike along the Yellow River flooding thousands of miles of farmland, killing an estimated 800,000 Chinese, and displacing nearly 4 million.

It is highly unlikely that China would ever deliberately unleash such a destructive act upon its neighbors, but the fact remains that it wields enormous leverage as an upstream nation by its ability to control life’s most essential resource.

High in the Himalayan Mountains are what has been dubbed the “Water Towers of Asia.” Seven of the continent’s greatest rivers start life here including the Mekong, Ganges, Yangtze, Indus and Irrawaddy. What begins as dribble from snow melt in the Tibetan plateau builds into mighty rivers that flow across China’s borders before eventually reaching South Asia.

To satisfy its insatiable demand for electricity and as part of its shift away from coal, China has gone on a dam building spree. In 1949, China had less than forty small hydroelectric dams, but now it has more dams than the United States, Brazil and Canada combined.

On the upper Mekong alone, China has erected seven mega dams with plans to build an additional twenty-one. Just one of its latest dams is capable of producing more hydropower than all of Vietnam and Thailand’s dams on the Mekong.

This dramatic increase in dam building activity has had an outsized environmental impact and stoked fears in downstream nations.

“Beside having environmental issues those dams in Tibet can be disastrous for [India]. They can unleash their fury during earthquake, accidents or by intentional destruction can easily be used against India during war,” said Milap Chandra Sharma, a glaciologist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

China’s southern neighbors are not worried without reason. In the past, India has blamed sudden discharges from Chinese dams for several flash floods including one that caused an estimated $30 million in damage and left 50,000 homeless in northeast India.

Each year, during China’s rainy season, downstream nations are on high alert as Chinese dams release water to ease pressure with little warning.

“A discharge by a dam will have a domino effect on the whole system, which can cause huge damages,” explained Le Anh Tuan, deputy director of the Research Institute for Climate Change in Vietnam.

In addition to floods, Chinese dams are also believed to be responsible for worsening droughts. Last year, Vietnam pleaded with China to release water from the Yunnan dam on the Mekong River to ease severe water shortages downstream. China agreed and waters flowed into Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.

These two extremes not only highlight the environmental impact of Chinese dams, but also serve as a stark reminder of China’s influence over its southern neighbors. These rivers are foundational to life in South Asia, providing drinking water, irrigation for farming, habitats for fisheries and transportation for commerce.

By controlling the flow of the lifeblood of the region, China has gained enormous power, which has led to accusations of abuse.

“When it comes to diplomacy, China uses rivers as a bargain chip,” said Tanasak Phosrikun, a Mekong river activist from Thailand.

China has denied these charges. Last year, in response to rising anger in India over Chinese dams, the state-run Global Times published an op-ed stating, “China-India relations should not be affected by an imaginary ‘water war.’”

“Frankly, there is no need for India to overact to such [dam building] projects, which aim to help with reasonable development and utilization of water resources,” the piece continued.

While China denies that a “water war” exists, the nation has refused to share hydrological data with India this year, despite signing an agreement. The data is critical during monsoon season as it helps India more accurately forecast floods and warn its residents, ultimately saving lives and minimizing damage.

Whether intentional or not, water has become a de facto weapon providing China with significant political leverage over its southern neighbors. As water scarcity worsens with climate change and population increases, the need for this precious resource will grow, amplifying China’s power and intensifying conflict.

Despite the best efforts of regional partnerships South Asian nations have had little success in encouraging sustainable and responsible development of rivers. With control of the Tibetan plateau by dint of its geography, China is king of the hill when it comes to water in Asia and there is little downstream nations can do to change the whims of this monarch.

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Here Are The Funniest Memes From The Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor Fight

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Saturday’s boxing match between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and UFC champion Conor McGregor was fairly entertaining even though the end result didn’t surprise anyone. After the fight, Twitter had jokes about McGregor’s TKO loss to Mayweather.

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